|
Share
of services in GDP (%) |
| |
1980 |
1999 |
|
SOUTH
ASIA |
|
|
|
India |
36 |
46 |
|
Pakistan |
46 |
49 |
|
Bangladesh |
34 |
50 |
|
Sri
Lanka |
43 |
52 |
|
Nepal |
26 |
37 |
|
Regional
average |
37 |
47 |
|
EAST
ASIA |
|
|
|
Hong
Kong |
49 |
85 |
|
Singapore |
61 |
64 |
|
Korea |
45 |
51 |
|
China |
21 |
33 |
|
Regional
average |
28 |
41 |
|
LATIN
AMERICA |
|
|
|
Argentina |
52 |
67 |
|
Brazil |
45 |
61 |
|
Mexico |
59 |
67 |
|
Regional
average |
50 |
62 |
|
AFRICA |
|
|
|
South
Africa |
43 |
64 |
|
Kenya |
47 |
61 |
|
Zimbabwe |
50 |
55 |
|
Regional
average |
43 |
56 |
|
HIGH
INCOME |
|
|
|
USA |
64 |
74 |
|
Japan |
54 |
62 |
|
France |
62 |
74 |
|
Regional
average |
61 |
71 |
|
WORLD |
55 |
63 |
|
Source:
World Development Indicators, ’98, 01 |
This
shows that in the last two decades the services
sector has expanded rapidly all over the world
though in comparison in India the growth has
not been so much. In fact, India has lagged
behind even compared to some countries in
South Asia. Interestingly some of the developing
countries like the Latin American countries
have services as high percentage of GDP, which
is even higher than the world average and
even higher than Japan. Generally speaking,
the developed countries have dominated this
expansion of services accounting for three
quarters of world services output. In 1997,
service sector output was valued at US$ 6.1
trillion or 61% of global output of goods
and services. The sector constitutes more
than 60% of economic activity in all OECD
countries (source WTO annual report 1999).
Correspondingly the services today constitutes
over 50% of the economic activity in developing
countries which is significantly more than
traditional sectors such as agriculture (source:
GOI 2001).
The
globalization of services takes place with
substantial expansion in trade and foreign
direct investment in services (FDI). Now the
service sector accounts for nearly 40% of
the world stock of FDI, which is estimated
at US$ 30 billion, and fifty percent of world
FDI flows, the bulk being among developed
countries. World exports of services are substantial,
which is estimated at US$ 1.5 trillion in
2000, which is roughly 23% of global merchandise
exports, with the developed countries again
accounting for the bulk of the transaction.
In the last decade world exports of commercial
services kept pace to the growth in merchandise
exports at an average rate of 6% per year
(source: Warren and Findlay, 2000, p.5).
India’s
role in the globalization of services can
be seen from the fact that in 1999-2000 India’s
total services trade was estimated at about
US$ 30 billion (source: GOI 2001). The comparative
growth in India in agriculture, industry and
in services can be seen from the following
table:
Index
of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (at 1993-94
prices), by Industry of Use
Base: 1993/94 = 100
|
Sr.
No. |
Particulars |
1993/94 |
1994/95 |
1995/96 |
1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
|
1. |
Agriculture
etc. |
100.00 |
108.6 |
115.4 |
118.5 |
118.7 |
121.9 |
|
2. |
Industry: |
100.00 |
113.3 |
152.6 |
152.8 |
151.2 |
164.2 |
|
2a. |
Manufacturing |
100.00 |
110.3 |
177.2 |
183.6 |
178.3 |
194.8 |
|
2b. |
Mining
and Quarrying |
100.00 |
194.6 |
124.7 |
78.2 |
77.8 |
74.6 |
|
2c. |
Electricity,
Gas and Water |
100.00 |
91.1 |
86.3 |
94.3 |
91.4 |
104.4 |
|
2d. |
Construction |
100.00 |
157.9 |
250.6 |
139.3 |
266.6 |
230.2 |
|
3. |
Services |
100.00 |
121.3 |
125.5 |
116.9 |
109.2 |
117.6 |
|
3a. |
Trade,
Hotels and Restaurants |
100.00 |
142.9 |
176.4 |
113.4 |
107.1 |
121.7 |
|
3b. |
Transport,
storage and communication |
100.00 |
122.1 |
128.1 |
126.7 |
111.4 |
110.4 |
|
3c. |
Financing,
Insurance, Real Estate & Business
Services |
100.00 |
115.4 |
115.9 |
108.3 |
103.0 |
106.6 |
|
3d. |
Community,
Social and Personal Services |
100.00 |
122.8 |
120.5 |
119.5 |
117.3 |
144.3 |
|
4. |
Total
(1+2+3) |
100.00 |
116.1 |
138.8 |
135.7 |
131.8 |
142.2 |
|
Source:
Central Statistical Organizations |
The
above table indicates the growth of industry
at a much higher percentage than services,
which again has increased more than agriculture.
One
important method for developing the services
sector is to allow more and more FDI into
the Indian economy. This raises the question
of desirability of bringing in FDI in an unrestricted
manner. The justification is that in India
the requirement for capital for upgrading,
expanding and modernizing most services is
so large that we just do not have the resources
to invest in them. For example in the telecommunication
sector the government and domestic private
players taken together would not be able to
garner the necessary capital for investment.
In some cases foreign investment is required
for concomitant, technological and managerial
expertise, which may not be present in India.
FDI will also be beneficial in the area of
infrastructure and health sector. In the health
sector this would upgrade our standards in
hospitals and bring in technology and better
management practices. There is a possibility
that good doctors will leave the government
hospitals and other Indian hospitals and join
the foreign one for higher pay. This will
create an internal brain drain. However, on
this count it would be wrong to depart the
health sector of FDI since there will be positively
an overall improvement of standard in the
healthcare. Even in respect of financial services
and insurance more FDI will be welcomed. Apprehension
regarding FDI in financial sector is not justified
since we do not have the convertibility on
the capital account. We have a mental block
about making a binding commitment under the
General Agreement of Trade in Services (GATS)
framework of the WTO. For instance we have
allowed only 55% foreign equity participation
in software services in our WTO commitments,
but in practice we allow upto 100%. The software
services industry is one of the fastest growing
service sub-sectors in the world and also
in India. The industry comprises of software
implementation services, system design, analysis,
maintenance services, consultancy and support
services etc. India’s growing trend towards
foreign collaboration in the software sector
is one of the reasons for India’s strong performance
in software exports. The other one is the
large pool of low cost skills, high quality
and English speaking manpower. From the GATS’
perspective, the software services sector
is of great significance to India. The NASSCOM-MCKINSEY
study on Indian IT Strategy, project export
revenues of nearly US$ 57 billion in India’s
software industry by 2008, implying a share
of 6% in the global market. The software sector
in India is truly globalized. We export software
hugely and also import FDI enormously, which
are complimentary to each other. If all other
services are globalized like the software
sector, there is bound to be more exports
and higher share of Indian export in the global
market. We may now concentrate on the development
of other professional services such as legal
services, accounting, architecture, design
services, construction and engineering services,
tourism services, educational services, apart
from the traditional ones.
The
GATS provides a framework for liberalizing
trade and services, but it has failed to significantly
liberalize services trade and investment.
The reason for this is the commitment structure
and also some fundamental shortcomings in
the GATS’ conceptual framework. One of the
main structural weaknesses is its non-generality
of its rules and disciplines. The second weakness
stems from the overlap between market access
and national treatment commitments. The third
is its modalities for negotiations. Given
the positive list approach to commitments,
negotiations are driven by concerns and interest
of the main players and of certain sectors.
India’s broad strategy for negotiations in
GATS has to be coherent within and across
the sectors in the country in making domestic
reforms and policy changes and also in relation
to multilateral transactions with the other
countries. The prospects for development in
many services hinge on that of other related
service sectors. So services have to be viewed
as a package.
The
collection of service tax in India has increased
phenomenally from 1994-95 when it was introduced
to now, because of the addition of more and
more services every year, the rate of tax
remaining at 5%. The collection figures of
service tax and those of Customs and Excise
are given in the following chart:
Growth
of Customs, Excise & Service Tax
|
Year |
Customs |
Excise |
Service
Tax |
No.
of taxpayers in service tax |
Service
tax as %age of GDP |
|
1994-95 |
26683 |
37467 |
407 |
3942 |
0.12 |
|
1995-96 |
35502 |
40565 |
862 |
4865 |
0.21 |
|
1996-97 |
42890 |
44918 |
1059 |
13981 |
0.22 |
|
1997-98 |
40537 |
47837 |
1586 |
45991 |
0.29 |
|
1998-99 |
41278 |
52454 |
1957 |
90455 |
0.31 |
|
1999-00 |
48315 |
61389 |
2072 |
114358 |
0.29 |
|
2000-01 |
47616 |
68918 |
2610 |
N.A. |
0.33 |
|
2001-02 |
54822 |
81448 |
3600 |
N.A. |
0.41 |
|
Source:
GOI |
The
above table shows that the share of service
tax as a percentage of service sectors` GDP
has grown from 0.12% to 0.41%, which is nearly
350% from 1994-95 to 2001-02. The number of
taxpayers has also increased enormously.
In
conclusion we may say that in view of the
growing importance of services in the Indian
economy and the significance of multilateral
framework for enhancing India’s trade prospect
in the sector, what is important is to liberalize
trade and investment in the services sector.
Since the sectors are inter-linked it is also
important to have proper economic reforms
to have industrial development, which only
can sustain the growth of services correspondingly.